The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way our country operates, and on a more local level, has influenced everything from traffic congestion to grocery shopping. Weris reached out to the Virginia Department of Health early in the pandemic to offer our expertise with data analysis, modeling, and visualization as a way to give back to our community. Below you will find our modeling and analysis of data for Virginia, DC, and Maryland. This page will continue to be enhanced by adding and updating data sets on a daily basis.

Questions, requests for clarification, and other communication regarding this COVID-19 project should be emailed to Piper Bray at piper.bray@weris-inc.com.

Below you will find our modeling and analysis of Virginia data sourced from the Virginia Department of Health website. There are nine tabs; navigation occurs by clicking the arrows (top or bottom) to the right of each graph.

  • Page 1’s graph is the cumulative confirmed cases for all of Virginia as well as its five regions (Central, Eastern, Northern, Northwest, and Southwest). A user can compare as many regions as they would like to each other or to Virginia’s statewide data.
  • Page 2 shows 10 localities in Virginia with the highest total confirmed cases to date. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value. Rrefers to the rate of transmission of COVID-19 (see below for further explanation).
  • Page 3’s graph shows the number of confirmed new cases statewide by date.
  • Page 4 is a graph in which the user can select the locality for which they want cumulative confirmed case numbers. A user may only select one locality at a time.
  • Page 5 is the percentage of each region’s total population with confirmed cases.
  • Page 6 shows the confirmed rate of each locality compared to the total population of the locality’s county by date.
  • Page 7 is where users can search for the number of confirmed new cases for each county by date.
  • Page 8 compares the statewide prediction of total confirmed cases to the actual total confirmed cases based on Weris’s own prediction model. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value.
  • Page 9 compares the line of prediction for total confirmed cases in Fairfax County to the actual total confirmed cases for Fairfax County based on Weris’s own prediction model. Fairfax is Virginia’s most populous county. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value.

Rt is the number of cases that are linked to each confirmed case of COVID-19. In other words, it is the number of people infected by a person with COVID-19. A Rvalue under 1.0 means that transmission has stabilized. If it consistently stays under 1.0 then then there should be fewer newly confirmed cases (incidence). Please reference the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s explanation of incidence, prevalence, and other morbidity frequency measures here.

Below you will find our modeling and analysis of Washington, D.C. data sourced from the DC Department of Health. There are four tabs; navigation occurs by clicking the arrows (top or bottom) to the right of each graph.

  • Page 1’s graph is the cumulative confirmed cases for Washington, DC. A user can compare as many regions as they would like to each other or to Virginia’s statewide data.
  • Page 2’s graph shows the number of confirmed new cases districtwide by date.
  • Page 3 compares the line of prediction for total confirmed cases in Washington, D.C. to the actual total confirmed cases for Washington, D.C. based on Weris’s own prediction model. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value. Rrefers to the rate of transmission of COVID-19 (see below for further explanation).
  • Page 4 compares the statewide prediction of total confirmed cases to the actual total confirmed cases based on Weris’s own prediction model. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value. Rrefers to the rate of transmission of COVID-19 (see below for further explanation).

Rt is the number of cases that are linked to each confirmed case of COVID-19. In other words, it is the number of people infected by a person with COVID-19. A Rvalue under 1.0 means that transmission has stabilized. If it consistently stays under 1.0 then then there should be fewer newly confirmed cases (incidence). Please reference the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s explanation of incidence, prevalence, and other morbidity frequency measures here.

Below you will find our modeling and analysis of Maryland data sourced from the MD Department of Health. There are nine tabs; navigation occurs by clicking the arrows (top or bottom) to the right of each graph.

  • Page 1’s graph is the cumulative confirmed cases for all of Maryland as well as its five regions (Capital, Central, Eastern Shore, Southern, and Western). A user can compare as many regions as they would like to each other or to Maryland’s statewide data.
  • Page 2 shows the 10 localities in Maryland with the highest total confirmed cases to date. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value. Rrefers to the rate of transmission of COVID-19 (see below for further explanation).
  • Page 3’s graph shows the number of confirmed new cases statewide by date.
  • Page 4 is a graph in which the user can select the locality for which they want cumulative confirmed case numbers. A user may only select one locality at a time.
  • Page 5 is the percentage of each region’s total population with confirmed cases.
  • Page 6 shows the confirmed rate of each locality compared to the total population of the locality’s county by date.
  • Page 7 is where users can search for the number of confirmed new cases for each county by date.
  • Page 8 compares the statewide prediction of total confirmed cases to the actual total confirmed cases based on Weris’s own prediction model. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value. Rrefers to the rate of transmission of COVID-19 (see below for further explanation).
  • Page 9 compares the line of prediction for total confirmed cases in Montgomery County to the actual total confirmed cases for Montgomery County based on Weris’s own prediction model. Montgomery is Maryland’s most populous county. The blue solid line indicates the historical Rt values to date. The black line reflects the predicted Rt  value for the next seven days while the shaded area indicates the confidence level of the Rt value. If the vertical length of the shaded area is larger, then the confidence level is low for the predicted Rt  value. Rrefers to the rate of transmission of COVID-19 (see below for further explanation).

Rt is the number of cases that are linked to each confirmed case of COVID-19. In other words, it is the number of people infected by a person with COVID-19. A Rvalue under 1.0 means that transmission has stabilized. If it consistently stays under 1.0 then then there should be fewer newly confirmed cases (incidence). Please reference the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s explanation of incidence, prevalence, and other morbidity frequency measures here.